Premier League Top Scorer 2012/13 Market- Can RVP maintain his MVP mantle?
With the Premier League season set to start in just a matter of days: fans, players, managers and journalists alike all seem to be in agreement that we are set for the most widely contested title race to date.
Less than 3 months ago, Manchester City stunned the footballing world by claiming their maiden title with the last kick of the season, snatching the glory from the grasp of their bitter-rivals Manchester United.
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But following positive managerial changes at both Liverpool and Tottenham, along with significant signings from Chelsea and Arsenal we could see the Manchester heavyweights pushed all the way in a thrilling 6 or 7-way battle for the Premier League 2012/13 trophy.The question of which teams colours will be draped around the famous trophy come May 2013 is a hugely debatable one but for now I’d like to look at an alternative market, Top Premier League Scorer 2012/13.
The Golden Boot is currently in the possession of Arsenal’s Dutch hitman Robin Van Persie after his sensational 30-goal haul in the league last term.
However, only 2 players in Premier League history have ever retained the Boot (Alan Shearer and Thierry Henry) and that statistic coupled with the fact that RVP’s future is still largely in doubt with Manchester United a likely destination as well as the strong possibility of him saying farewell to England in search of new challenges abroad mean he’s not been installed as the favourite this time round (Van Persie is 11/1 with BetVictor).
That honour lies with defending Champions’ star striker Sergio Aguero who is as short as 7/1 in places, but BetVictor offer a best priced 8/1 on the tricky Argentine.
Although for those who agree with the Bookies’ who also make Aguero’s Manchester City favourites for the title please take note that in the last 17 seasons of the Premier League, only 4 times has the outright winner of the Golden Boot been a member of the winning Premier League team!
Last season’s bridesmaid to both the League and Top Scorer honours was Manchester United, and England striker Wayne Rooney is the second favourite, again with BetVictor at a best-priced 9/1 as United look to wrestle the title back from their noisy neighbours.
Wayne is very much a confidence player and he generally scores his goals in bunches, going on impressive goalscoring runs is a feature of his game and if he can avoid too many dry spells then he has every chance of winning his first ever Golden Boot after two 2nd-placed finishes in recent years.
Another former runner-up of the Top Scorer accolade is Chelsea’s record signing Fernando Torres who finished 2nd in his first season in English football with Liverpool back in the 2007-08 season although we all know that he has rather flattered to deceive since he burst onto the scene.
He is the exact same price as RVP at 11/1 and is an interesting prospect who looked to be getting back to his best in the back end of last season before an impressive Golden Boot win at the European Championships this summer despite being a bit-part player on the international scene.
‘Nando has looked sharp in pre-season however and I personally expect him to step out of the shadow of the great Didier Drogba and have a terrific season for Chelsea.
The only other 2 strikers under the 20/1 price are the enigmatic Carlos Tevez at 12/1 with BetVictor which I think is a bit short and despite his exceptional talent, his temperament and consistency are still very much under serious scrutiny.
Liverpool’s controversial front man Luis Suarez makes up the 6-strong leading pack in this market at 16/1 but he’s hardly a prolific goalscorer and only managed 11 last term.
With most bookies offering 1/4 the odds for a top 4 finish it pays to look for a value bet, just look at last season where Fulham’s Clint Dempsey finished fourth with 17 goals.
The American is 66/1 for top spot this year but would have been at least double that this time last year, so I’ll conclude the article with my pick of some outside contenders!
Fabio Borini (Liverpool) – 50/1- A bit of an unknown quantity in England but scored on his debut and with Suarez creating space for midfielders a la Borini and the rejected Andy Carroll, Borini could be a big goal threat at Anfield in his debut season.
Rickie Lambert (Southampton)– 80/1- again untested at this level but who was expecting Kevin Phillips to net 30 for Sunderland in 1999-2000? Lambert has scored goals for fun in the lower leagues and will look to take the big step up.
Pavel Pogrebnyak (Reading)– 100/1- Ex-Fulham striker has joined Reading and will look to build on his impressive start which saw him score with his first 5 shots in English football!
Theo Walcott (Arsenal)– 125/1- Speed demon Theo has improved dramatically over the past 12 months and that level of consistency that fans’ have cried out for seems to have appeared, may still be used in a more advanced role especially if Van Persie gets his move away from the Emirates.