Holland v Chile
Live on ITV1 5.00pm
Louis van Gaal’s Holland proved that their best form of defence was attack against Spain, eventually winning 5-1 in their first Group B game, and this was also the case vs Australia in game two.
Taking the lead through Bayern Munich’s Arjen Robben (7/4 Anytime, Paddy Power) in the 20th minute, Holland surprisingly found themselves losing 2-1 early in the second half, and had to rely on van Persie and Pebay strikes to eventually win a thrilling game 3-2.
Manchester United’s Robin van Perise won’t be able to help Holland in their third game against Chile, though, as he’s suspended. Schalke’s Klaas-Jan Huntelaar (2/1 Anytime, Bet365) is expected to replace him.
As expected, Chile followed up their 3-1 defeat of Australia by easily dispatching a poor Spanish side 2-0 in their second game of the tournament. Eduardo Vargas (5/2 Anytime, Betfred) and Charles Aranguiz were the Chilean scorers, and Sampaoli’s boys were dominant from start to finish. Perhaps the only surprise in this game was that Spain couldn’t score.
You’d certainly expect both teams to score in Holland v Chile, but at a current industry best price of 13/20 with Bet Victor it’s too short priced for me to bet on. Over 2.5 goals, which has been a winner in both of Holland’s group games and one of Chile’s, is, however, acceptably priced at 4/5 with Betfair and likely to get much shorter by kick-off should each team field a strong starting eleven. Betfair and likely to get much shorter by kick-off should each team field a strong starting eleven.
In terms of the group dynamic, by virtue a better goal difference, Holland are first and Chile are second. Providing that Brazil top their group, this means that whoever finishes second in Group B will play Brazil in the second round.
Whilst I imagine that Chile would stand a decent chance of beating the 2014 World Cup tournament hosts in their own country, logic suggests that they and Holland will want to avoid playing Brazil so early in the knockout stages. As such, I expect the Chile coach, Sampaoli, to send his troops out to get the win.
Chile are priced at 9/5 with Bet 365 in the Match Winner market – and I wouldn’t blame you for backing them – but a more sensible bet that fits the match dynamic is Chile Draw no Bet, which is best priced at even money with William Hill.
Of course, I can’t rule a Holland (17/10 BetVictor) victory out, and if you fancy the Dutch to win then Draw no Bet – priced at 5/6 with Betfair – is what i’d again recommend. After all, a draw would be good enough for the Dutch to retain top spot so it’s, arguably, not sensible to back the straight win.
For anyone who wants to be more ambitious in their bet selection, Coral offer the best prices on the Match Result and Both Teams to Score market, with Holland available at 18/5 and Chile 4/1.
In conclusion, since they currently sit atop Group B, logic suggests that Holland will be happy with a draw against Chile. However, as documented several times, the Dutch’s weakness is their defence and Chile – who will want to finish first – will, as always, go for the win and attack until they have a comfortable lead.
Given the above, and although I think that Chile won’t lose and am tempted to back them on a Draw No Bet basis, over 2.5 goals, in my opinion, is the standout bet in the game that decides who avoids Brazil in the second round.
Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals (4/5 Betfair)