Week 3 NFL PicksAfter a couple of disappointing weeks in which we have been on the wrong side of some very tight games I have decided to change things up a little. The NFL season is looking to be a very tight one, and I am at times struggling to find much value in what the bookies are offering. So from now on you’ll probably only see a maximum on 2 Money Line or Spread tips from me, while I will be using my player and team knowledge to find the best match ups for ‘To score a TD at anytime’ bets.
It must also be noted that odds for these bets come up very late, so often you will find they are not up at time of writing, so I will be forced to give recommendations and at what odds there is value in the option.
Also note that I find BetVictor has the best odds for the ‘TD at anytime’ option.
New Orleans Vs. Arizona Cardinals 22nd September – 1800GMT
BET: To Score a TD at anytime – Jimmy Graham
My favourite bet so far this season. With TDs in both games so far, and a massive 10receptions for 179yards last week Jimmy Graham has been a favourite target of New Orleans QB Drew Brees so far this year. Graham stands at 6’7, 235pounds, and has got great speed for a big man, means there is very few players in the NFL that can stop Graham from coming down with the ball in the end zone.Match this up with a pass orientated offense, one of the most accurate QB’s in the NFL, and the game being played at home in an indoor stadium you have pretty good option here. But add the fact that Arizona are also a pass-orientated team, so the game should be a fast paced, gunslinger affair in which New Orleans should hold the majority of possession and field position.
Also Arizona have one of the best CBs in the NFL who will be looking to cancel out New Orleans No.1 receiver, so look for Graham (being a TE) to be targeted even more than usual, add also that Arizona are ranked 21st out of 32 teams in pass defence this looks to be too much in Jimmy Graham’s favour to ignore.
Being a TE, bookies will always give Jimmy Graham odds greater than that of their No.1 RB and primary receiver, so 1.75 looks to be a minimum here and 1.90 may not be out of the question.
Bears Vs Steelers 23rd September – 0130GMT
BET: Bears -2.5 – 1.90 @ Bet365
Two games into the NFL season and the Pittsburgh Steelers are winless and have only managed to put up a total of 19 points, and against teams that are less adept defensively as their opponents this week, the Chicago Bears. Of course the Steelers are never easy to play at home but a 2.5point handicap is far too short.
Chicago’s offense will be going into this one looking to get some quick points on the board, and quieten the home crowd early. The Bears offense matches up very well against their counterparts this week so look for QB Jay Cutler to target TE Martellus Bennett and RB Matt Forte often in this one. (Forte should be short odds of around 1.65 to score in this one, while Bennett will be around the range of 2.50, anything above this is great value).
As a bit of collateral on top of this The Steelers went down 20-10 against The Bengals last week, a team which Chicago beat 24-21 in Week 1.
Denver Vs Oakland 24th September – 0130GMT
BET: To Score a TD at anytime – Julius Thomas.
The bookies didn’t seem to know anything about Thomas the first week of the season. Offering TD at anytime @3.50, Thomas went on to score twice against a highly rated Baltimore defence. Last week he was into a far shorter 2.50, but again Thomas was a key target and caught 1 TD pass against a decent New York Giants side.
This week the Broncos are back home against a very weak Oakland Raiders outfit that is expected to give up in excess of 40points this week…that’s a good 5 TDs, at least one of which should be to Thomas.
Julius is in the same mould as Jimmy Graham, being a 6’5 TE he has already caught 11 passes for 150+ yards this season, with a pass orientated offense led by the best QB in the NFL, and in a team that will dominate every facet of this game.
Thomas should be offering in excess of 2.20, but once again don’t be surprised if you stumble across odds as high as 2.50. – Please note there will be 2 players with the surname Thomas playing for Denver so please insure you select Julius Thomas NOT Demarylus.
On top of these picks I see good value for the Money Line on San Diego Chargers @2.30 and Atlanta Falcons @2.20. I think both will win, but have put a large stake on with a huge amount of insurance and put both teams in a double on the +7.5 Alternative spread paying 1.98.