There isn’t 100k at stake but Boxing’s Wise Guy Should Leave it Late
While we divulge the news that Tyson Fury and Dereck Chisora have agreed to a 100k bet as to who wins next weekend’s hotly-anticipated heavyweight rematch between the two, I’d like to draw your attention to tonight’s boxing card from the historical York Hall in Bethnal Green, London.
Screened on Box Nation from 19:00 GMT onwards, the Frank Warren promoted event is topped by a Southern Area super middleweight title fight bout between Frank Buglioni (12-1-0) and Sam Couzens (11-12-1).
Nicknamed ‘The Wise Guy’ through his Anglo-Italian heritage, London-born Buglioni was considered to be a rising star on the domestic scene and had good potential marketability overseas, particularly in America, but his career was temporarily derailed back in April.
Holding a 12-0 professional record at the time, the then WBO European super middleweight champion, Buglioni, was sensationally stopped in six rounds by Sergey Khomitsky at London’s Copper Box Arena.
Khomitsky (27-10-1) is the sort of seasoned pro that isn’t going to win a world title but will provide a stern test to someone who’s looking to do just that within a few years. He’d lost to British middleweights like Martin Murray (twice) and Ryan Rhodes in previous years so Buglioni, as an up-and-comer, wasn’t perceived to be out of his depth.
Leading up to the fight, however, the man criticism of Buglioni had been that his defence was poor and needed to improve, quickly. Frank’s camp spoke about how they’d worked on this and that we’d see the results against Khomitsky, but then the hard-hitting Belarusian easily hammered his opponent into submission.
So, we can say that ‘The Wise Guy’ wasn’t ready to become a made man back in April but, if he learns from defeat and improves his defence, then Frank Buglioni can rise up the ranks and challenge for European honours again.
Of course, as in any boxer’s comeback fight after being stopped, Buglioni’s opponent, Sam Couzens, is not considered to be hard-hitting and the Anglo-Italian is heavily favoured to make his career record 13-1-0.
Buglioni v Couzens Best Bets
If you’re looking to have a bet on the bout, the bad news is that Buglioni is best priced at a mere 1/50 (Bet365) to beat Couzens, and I wouldn’t bet on any boxer at such odds.
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However, extra markets such as method of victory, total rounds and fight to go the distance are slowly being released by bookmakers, and I have an angle worth pursuing.
What seems smartest is to bet on the bout lasting more than four rounds. Why? Well, coming off the back of a stoppage, the sensible game plan for Buglioni is to instruct him to box cautiously in the early rounds and recover a bit of confidence, before gradually increasing his aggression as the fight progresses into the latter stages.
Couzens has lost more bouts than he’s won, sure, but he’s undefeated in his last two and averages just over four rounds per contest – and a lot of those were four round bouts anyway (this is ten).
So, in conclusion, bets like over 3.5 total rounds or laying Buglioni to win in rounds 1-4 fit the dynamic of this bout and are the best bets to take once Betfair and Bet365 release their prices – probably by the time you’re reading this.
Finally, however, should you prefer a longshot of sorts, Buglioni to win on points is currently priced at 3/1 with Bet Victor.