I made my first post on this subject last Saturday, with tips aimed at Betfair, the leading Betting Exchange. The idea is to find a BACK – a bet that stands out as a winning one, a LAY – basically betting on something to lose, and a STAY AWAY – an event that I predict could be a risky wager and could go any way, hence steering clear from it.
My lay of Tottenham was incorrect, despite it looking good when Sunderland took the lead, but my back of Cardiff was successful. My stay away game was Reading v West Ham, which finished 1-0 to the home side.
Following the same format, here are my best Betfair exchange tips for New Years Day:
BACK:SWANSEA v Aston Villa
The form looks rock solid here and Swansea should be licking their lips at the chance of facing a desperately out of form Aston Villa side that have conceded 15 goals without reply in their 3 Christmas period games.
Villa were all over the shop in their 3-0 loss to Wigan at Villa Park last time out, and I can’t make a case for them when they visit Wales to face a Swansea team that took all 3 points from Fulham at Craven Cottage at the weekend, and have lost just 2 of their 12 home games played in all competitions this term.
Despite being without Michu for their win in London, his return is a huge positive for Swansea as a whole.
LAY: BLACKBURN v Nottingham Forest
They are managerless, are plummeting further down the table week by week, and have picked up just 4 of the last 24 points available. Why would anyone want to back Blackburn when Nottingham Forest visit?
Forest have lost only 1 of their last 5 games, humbled Leeds 4-2 on Boxing Day, and showed great spirit to hold Crystal Palace to a 2-2 draw at the weekend.
Blackburn’s 3-1 win at the weekend will lift confidence, but you have to remember that was against rock bottom Barnsley who haven’t won at Oakwell since September.
STAY AWAY: Birmingham v Cardiff
Cardiff were a big back for me at the weekend, but their fantastic recent form won’t be tempting me to back them at St Andrews against Birmingham. The Bluebirds were rather patchy on their travels before building their current run of 10pts from a possible 12 in their last 4 away from home, and Brum appear to be raising their game lately.
Birmingham fans will be hugely disappointed with their current 20th place in the league, but there are signs, especially at home, that they are improving. Boro’ and Crystal Palace have failed to take the points from St. Andrews in recent weeks, and I think Cardiff may struggle. A no bet game for me here.